Payoff & Pricing
2 min read
Understanding payout ratios, implied probability, and how to evaluate a trade on Raven.
The Digital Payoff
At expiry, a Raven digital option has exactly two outcomes. For a CALL:
Payoff = 0 if CC < Strike at expiry
Where N is the fixed payout in CC. How far price moves above the strike is irrelevant — the payout is always the same fixed amount.
Reading Payout Odds
The odds displayed in the chain (e.g., 0.53 for the CALL side) are the CC stake required per 1 CC of payout. To receive a 100 CC payout on a contract at 0.53 odds, you stake 53 CC. Your max loss is 53 CC; your max gain is 47 CC.
Net Profit if ITM = Payout − Stake = Payout × (1 − Odds)
Implied Probability
Odds are directly interpretable as the market-implied probability of the option expiring ITM. Odds of 0.53 = 53% implied probability. If your conviction is that the true probability is higher, the trade carries positive expected value.
| Odds shown | Stake for 100 CC payout | Implied prob | Your edge if true prob = 65% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.40 | 40 CC | 40% | +25% EV per trade |
| 0.53 | 53 CC | 53% | +12% EV per trade |
| 0.70 | 70 CC | 70% | −5% EV per trade |
CALL + PUT Always Sum to 1
For any strike and expiry, CALL odds + PUT odds = 1 (pre-fee). This ensures the pool is internally consistent regardless of imbalance.
Protocol Fee
A small protocol fee is applied to each trade. The fee is shown clearly in the order ticket before confirmation — the payout breakdown always shows post-fee values. You will never see a surprise deduction after executing.
Price Impact
Large orders relative to pool depth shift the AMM curve, increasing your average odds cost. The order ticket shows estimated price impact for your specific size. For very large orders, splitting across multiple transactions minimizes impact.